Keith Bailey states the first real sign of advancing age is when one's barber asks if you want the ears, nose and eyebrows trimmed. The second may be when two friends suggest that because of your "experience in the industry" that you might like to do a periodic blog on their internet energy website. Well it was a truly Andy Rooney moment for me to be asked to be part of this publication and, just as Andy obviously did, I continue to tell my barber to keep his hands off my eyebrows.
Assuming this first attempt doesn't hit the cutting room floor, my goal is to periodically choose a subject that strikes my fancy and which doesn't, at least in my judgment, appear to be getting either enough or balanced attention in the media. And occasionally, just like Andy, there are things I will just wonder about.
For example, one thing I’ve been thinking about is the weather this past year. If you look at the numbers, 2013 is going to turn out to be one of the coldest years in the U.S. in the last 20 years. [Among other publications, The Standard-Examiner had an article on this a couple of weeks back. Click here to see it.)
Let’s look at some of the numbers. The blue line on the graph below shows how cold it has been relative to 20 year average temperatures. What is particularly fascinating is that this cold weather comes just after 2012, which was one of the warmest years on record (red line on the graph). These temperature differences may look small on the graph, but just a few degrees in average temperature makes a big difference in how it feels when you walk outside, and also the impact of the weather on our environment. [Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/]
This year’s colder weather has been responsible for a number of interesting developments. One that I find particularly intriguing is that the arctic ice cap grew by 553,000 sq miles or 29% over the past year. (See: The Gazette: And now it is Global Cooling). Of course that’s what the ice cap does. It shrinks in warm years like 2012 and grows in cold years like 2013. It doesn’t seem like that should be a big surprise. But apparently it was for some forecasters who according to the Gazette article have been predicting the impending demise of the ice cap. Some ‘experts’ had the ice cap gone in 2013. Oops.
Of course, just because they were wrong doesn’t prove anything. Except that it might be a bit of evidence that forecasting the weather – or the results of the weather is still far from an exact science. But that doesn’t stop ‘experts’ from making predictions or assigning causality. In fact, there are countless studies out there to support just about any opinion you might want to have about global warming. Many years ago, some scientist suggested that an earlier long term cooling trend was attenuated because we started using cleaner burning fuels. Supposedly this reduced the cloud layer which in turn allowed more sun to reach the earth and you can figure out the rest. Just this year, following the recent record flooding in Colorado, ‘experts’ said that the cooler weather is somehow a result of a long term trend of shrinking ice caps shifting the jet stream and pushing colder air south. (Source: Wild Weather Tied to Jet Stream) I just don’t buy that weather models can be that precise about the cause-and-effect of weather phenomena.
Please don’t misunderstand my point. While I have no doubt that human activity is one of the factors that affects our weather and that domestic temperatures in a single year do not disaffirm the decades long global warming trend, I am just much less convinced than some prognosticators that it is "settled science" that hydrocarbons are the determinative factor in any particular outcome. And that goes both ways. As I learn more about the complicated net effects of global warming, I keep coming up with more questions than answers.
What I do know, however, from my now 50 plus years in the hydrocarbon industry is that the United States’ abundance of reliable, affordable energy has been a primary driver of our economic success as a nation. In past decades, our energy resources helped drive the development of our country. Now, with the newfound abundance of shale hydrocarbons, it has the potential to further expand our role as the leader of the global economy.
We have over 100 years of supply of both coal and natural gas and we are rapidly increasing our domestic oil production thus lessening our demand for imported oil. Over my career, I have seen our home furnace go from coal, to oil, to natural gas as technology and distribution capability changed. I firmly believe that if we continue to use these traditional hydrocarbon fuels our international competitive advantage will be maintained and I also believe that we have steadily reduced the environmental impact of our use of these fuels and would expect those technological improvements to continue.
It just makes one wonder if those suggesting we abandon these fuels altogether are so certain of their view of climate science that they are willing to put our national economy at risk based on those convictions.
Humorist and commentator Andy Rooney was a frequent contributor to 60 Minutes until his death in 2011. As noted above, he had bushy eyebrows.
Assuming this first attempt doesn't hit the cutting room floor, my goal is to periodically choose a subject that strikes my fancy and which doesn't, at least in my judgment, appear to be getting either enough or balanced attention in the media. And occasionally, just like Andy, there are things I will just wonder about.
For example, one thing I’ve been thinking about is the weather this past year. If you look at the numbers, 2013 is going to turn out to be one of the coldest years in the U.S. in the last 20 years. [Among other publications, The Standard-Examiner had an article on this a couple of weeks back. Click here to see it.)
Let’s look at some of the numbers. The blue line on the graph below shows how cold it has been relative to 20 year average temperatures. What is particularly fascinating is that this cold weather comes just after 2012, which was one of the warmest years on record (red line on the graph). These temperature differences may look small on the graph, but just a few degrees in average temperature makes a big difference in how it feels when you walk outside, and also the impact of the weather on our environment. [Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/]
Source: NOAA
Of course, just because they were wrong doesn’t prove anything. Except that it might be a bit of evidence that forecasting the weather – or the results of the weather is still far from an exact science. But that doesn’t stop ‘experts’ from making predictions or assigning causality. In fact, there are countless studies out there to support just about any opinion you might want to have about global warming. Many years ago, some scientist suggested that an earlier long term cooling trend was attenuated because we started using cleaner burning fuels. Supposedly this reduced the cloud layer which in turn allowed more sun to reach the earth and you can figure out the rest. Just this year, following the recent record flooding in Colorado, ‘experts’ said that the cooler weather is somehow a result of a long term trend of shrinking ice caps shifting the jet stream and pushing colder air south. (Source: Wild Weather Tied to Jet Stream) I just don’t buy that weather models can be that precise about the cause-and-effect of weather phenomena.
Please don’t misunderstand my point. While I have no doubt that human activity is one of the factors that affects our weather and that domestic temperatures in a single year do not disaffirm the decades long global warming trend, I am just much less convinced than some prognosticators that it is "settled science" that hydrocarbons are the determinative factor in any particular outcome. And that goes both ways. As I learn more about the complicated net effects of global warming, I keep coming up with more questions than answers.
What I do know, however, from my now 50 plus years in the hydrocarbon industry is that the United States’ abundance of reliable, affordable energy has been a primary driver of our economic success as a nation. In past decades, our energy resources helped drive the development of our country. Now, with the newfound abundance of shale hydrocarbons, it has the potential to further expand our role as the leader of the global economy.
We have over 100 years of supply of both coal and natural gas and we are rapidly increasing our domestic oil production thus lessening our demand for imported oil. Over my career, I have seen our home furnace go from coal, to oil, to natural gas as technology and distribution capability changed. I firmly believe that if we continue to use these traditional hydrocarbon fuels our international competitive advantage will be maintained and I also believe that we have steadily reduced the environmental impact of our use of these fuels and would expect those technological improvements to continue.
It just makes one wonder if those suggesting we abandon these fuels altogether are so certain of their view of climate science that they are willing to put our national economy at risk based on those convictions.
Humorist and commentator Andy Rooney was a frequent contributor to 60 Minutes until his death in 2011. As noted above, he had bushy eyebrows.
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